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DarthPenguin
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bushido_man96 wrote:
sensei8 wrote:
I'd, for one, would love to see more teams go for it on 4th down and all that it might usher in what's new and effective for the Coaches play calls. Fans have been upset at the coaching staff when they punt and not take that given gamble. If they don't make the first down, then defense better do their job to get the ball back through downs.




Fans may grumble about it, but fans aren't in the building studying this stuff 5 days a week, and fans don't have to worry about losing their jobs if they make the wrong decisions.

Quote:
Mahomes was the safe pick for MVP and can't really disagree but i just think it would have been nice for Hurts to get it. Will be interested to see if he has made the genuine leap to top tier QB or if it is a Carson Wentz style great season with a drop off again afterwards


I think if Hurts hadn't missed some playing time, he would have won the MVP. I also think he's here to stay; no Wentz dropoff. Hurts has improved vastly over the past three seasons. I don't know how much more improvement he can make, but he's shown that he can carry a team to the ultimate prize.


Will be interesting to see how the 4th down thing progresses. There will be a lot of analysis based on net points i assume from 4th down tries, plus net yardage, with teams coming up with their own acceptable metric:

I envisage something like : we get 50% of tries and average 7pts per successful 4th down try drive, so 3.5pts per attempt but when we fail we give up a field goal on 1 in 3 but no points the others, so a loss of -1 with a net of +2.5pts - obviously will be a lot more complicated.

NFL and Baseball are really good for making use of analytics so if there is a gain to be made there then someone will
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sensei8
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2023 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just hope and pray that the NFL doesn't try to make changes to game play like MLB already has. MLB seems like it's turned more into Little League instead of Major League.



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DarthPenguin
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Joined: 03 Dec 2021
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Location: Glasgow, Scotland
Styles: Shotokan, Judo, BJJ

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, i understand why they have tried to make changes to speed up the game but i don't think they have done it in a particularly good way.

8 seconds max for the batter to get ready doesn't seem like much tbh and there will be issues if any 'proper' games are decided with an awarded strike/ball as the spring training one was the other day.

I would have thought it would make sense to allocate an average time per hitter and this gets tracked. Then if it isn't met there is some kind of penalty for the player and team - would allow the players to adjust to the situation: if pitching to a dangerous hitter like Judge with the bases loaded then can take some time, if pitching to a guy hitting .180 with empty bases can speed up a bit
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bushido_man96
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2023 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DarthPenguin wrote:
bushido_man96 wrote:
sensei8 wrote:
I'd, for one, would love to see more teams go for it on 4th down and all that it might usher in what's new and effective for the Coaches play calls. Fans have been upset at the coaching staff when they punt and not take that given gamble. If they don't make the first down, then defense better do their job to get the ball back through downs.




Fans may grumble about it, but fans aren't in the building studying this stuff 5 days a week, and fans don't have to worry about losing their jobs if they make the wrong decisions.

Quote:
Mahomes was the safe pick for MVP and can't really disagree but i just think it would have been nice for Hurts to get it. Will be interested to see if he has made the genuine leap to top tier QB or if it is a Carson Wentz style great season with a drop off again afterwards


I think if Hurts hadn't missed some playing time, he would have won the MVP. I also think he's here to stay; no Wentz dropoff. Hurts has improved vastly over the past three seasons. I don't know how much more improvement he can make, but he's shown that he can carry a team to the ultimate prize.


Will be interesting to see how the 4th down thing progresses. There will be a lot of analysis based on net points i assume from 4th down tries, plus net yardage, with teams coming up with their own acceptable metric:

I envisage something like : we get 50% of tries and average 7pts per successful 4th down try drive, so 3.5pts per attempt but when we fail we give up a field goal on 1 in 3 but no points the others, so a loss of -1 with a net of +2.5pts - obviously will be a lot more complicated.

NFL and Baseball are really good for making use of analytics so if there is a gain to be made there then someone will


I think you have to take into account the nature of the game being played in, too. This was the Super Bowl; all or nothing. I'm not sure they consider going for it as many times during an early regular season game, but I could be wrong. I think the fact that it was the Super Bowl made a huge difference in going for it that many times. Sneaking on 3rd and 4th downs like that, that many times throughout the course of the regular season puts the QB in a dangerous spot quite often.
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DarthPenguin
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bushido_man96 wrote:
DarthPenguin wrote:
bushido_man96 wrote:
sensei8 wrote:
I'd, for one, would love to see more teams go for it on 4th down and all that it might usher in what's new and effective for the Coaches play calls. Fans have been upset at the coaching staff when they punt and not take that given gamble. If they don't make the first down, then defense better do their job to get the ball back through downs.




Fans may grumble about it, but fans aren't in the building studying this stuff 5 days a week, and fans don't have to worry about losing their jobs if they make the wrong decisions.

Quote:
Mahomes was the safe pick for MVP and can't really disagree but i just think it would have been nice for Hurts to get it. Will be interested to see if he has made the genuine leap to top tier QB or if it is a Carson Wentz style great season with a drop off again afterwards


I think if Hurts hadn't missed some playing time, he would have won the MVP. I also think he's here to stay; no Wentz dropoff. Hurts has improved vastly over the past three seasons. I don't know how much more improvement he can make, but he's shown that he can carry a team to the ultimate prize.


Will be interesting to see how the 4th down thing progresses. There will be a lot of analysis based on net points i assume from 4th down tries, plus net yardage, with teams coming up with their own acceptable metric:

I envisage something like : we get 50% of tries and average 7pts per successful 4th down try drive, so 3.5pts per attempt but when we fail we give up a field goal on 1 in 3 but no points the others, so a loss of -1 with a net of +2.5pts - obviously will be a lot more complicated.

NFL and Baseball are really good for making use of analytics so if there is a gain to be made there then someone will


I think you have to take into account the nature of the game being played in, too. This was the Super Bowl; all or nothing. I'm not sure they consider going for it as many times during an early regular season game, but I could be wrong. I think the fact that it was the Super Bowl made a huge difference in going for it that many times. Sneaking on 3rd and 4th downs like that, that many times throughout the course of the regular season puts the QB in a dangerous spot quite often.


True but then maybe you end up with a 'QB by committee for some teams' a bigger one who sneaks more and a smaller one who doesn't - though that would be tough to prevent the other team knowing what is happening.

Am sure that the front offices have people working on crunching the numbers though : i know that there is a massive correlation between sacks and game winning and have seen a win probability added number linked to them before. IF there is a way of eeking out a statistical advantage then someone will spot it!
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bushido_man96
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2023 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it's hard to run a two QB system in the NFL. Mainly due to the salary cap, and having to pay for other important positions, too.
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DarthPenguin
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thats true but things change. Remember when every team used to have an every down main running back but now most teams opt for RB by committee as they get more out of it.

In my head i can see a lot of benefits to having two players who could both be in the backfield and interchange at QB - one who is better at passing, one who is better at running and mess with the defence that way. Would be tough to get the right players though!
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sensei8
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They're far and away the QB that can do it all. QBs like Peyton and Brady, to mention just a few with that "ALL" about themselves. Arm strength, accuracy, touch, mechanics, able to read the field, decision making with the darn football, competitiveness, leadership, toughness, pocket awareness, kamikaze toughness, and run ability...at least.

Many of today's QBs possess that, like, Mahomes and Hurts, as we know were both in the SB against each other. Not sure on which QB is staying or leaving the NFL. Rodgers might be going to the Jets and Carr appears to be going to the Saints. Both, in my opinion, have that "ALL" factor about themselves in spades.



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DarthPenguin
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah there are several qb's who can do it all but their backups can't. My thought process was more along the lines of wondering if there could be a competitive advantage (both financially and playing wise) to having a dual system whereby each one had 'half the skill set', potentially on less than half the money, but also alleviating the injury risk somewhat as if one gets hurt then you only have a degradation on their half of the game

eg if Josh Allen goes down hurt then the Bills offence loses out massively and every area of QB production drops. If, however, there was one passing qb and one running one that both played together, filling in as fb/blocker/receiver when not handling the play then if one went down you would only be losing out on their skill set and it might be easier to find a replacement that only has that partial skill - eg good arm but no mobility etc

Possibly a silly idea but it intrigues me!
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bushido_man96
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is that half of the time half of the teams in the league are looking for a QB to run their offense, let alone trying to find 2 of them that are good, and make the team, and then don't want to sign for a ton of money when their rookie contract is up. I do understand what you are saying, but I just don't see it being a practical outcome in the NFL.
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